股权性质、环境不确定性与技术资本配置效率

技术转化为资本，资本创造价值已经成为共识，技术资本在不同公司创造价值的作用程度不同，根源是技术资本配置效率问题。选取沪深两市2008-2013年间制造业上市公司为样本，检验了基于不同股权性质的公司环境不确定性对企业技术资本配置效率和价值的影响，研究结果表明：①企业环境不确定性程度越高，技术资本配置效率越低，并且技术资本配置偏离度在国有公司中表现为配置过度，在非国有公司表现为配置不足；②在股权性质为国有的公司中，由环境不确定性引发的技术资本配置偏离将降低企业价值，在非国有控股公司中，由环境不确定性导致的技术资本配置偏离将增加企业价值。     

房地产企业工程造价的管理与控制

随着国家的宏观调控,房地产市场的暴利时代已经逝去。而以定位准确、服务至上、提高品质、品牌等为核心的"价值回归"的理念,正在得到业界越来越多的关注和认同。因此,房地产行业在未来的发展过程中,如何通过工程造价的管理与控制,来提高自己的核心竞争力已是重中之重。笔者现结合实际工作的一些体会,就房地产企业在开发过程中工程造价的管理与控制谈一些个人的观点。希望能为工程造价合理、有效的管理和控制提供一定参考。     

Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the use of several parametric and nonparametric forecasting techniques for predicting tourism demand in selected European countries. We find that no single model can provide the best forecasts for any of the countries in the short-, medium- and long-run. The results, which are tested for statistical significance, enable forecasters to choose the most suitable model (from those evaluated here) based on the country and horizon for forecasting tourism demand. Should a single model be of interest, then, across all selected countries and horizons the Recurrent Singular Spectrum Analysis model is found to be the most efficient based on lowest overall forecasting error. Neural Networks and ARFIMA are found to be the worst performing models.     

The development of service quality dimensions for internet service providers: Retaining customers of different usage patterns

This study examines the relationships among relevant service quality dimensions of Internet service providers (ISP) and their customers’ perceived value, trust and commitment. Data was collected from residential Internet users in Thailand. The final usable sample size was 1507. The analyses include segmenting ISPs’ customers on the basis of their usage pattern and evaluating their perceptions of Internet service quality dimensions. In addition, several alternatives models were compared using structural equation modelling to confirm the mediation effects. An ISP’s service quality is influenced by the following four dimensions (a) network quality, (b) customer service and technical support, (c) information quality and (d) security and privacy. The findings reveal that while all dimensions have positive effects on trust, only network quality, information support and privacy influence customer value significantly and information support is the only dimension which is directly related to commitment. Additionally, the effects of customer service and information support on value vary across customers of different Internet usage patterns. The contribution of the present paper stems from the simultaneous modelling of a range of mediation effects which can better help explain the impact of service quality dimensions on customers’ cognitive and affective evaluations in high-tech service settings.     

Pricing CDS spreads with Credit Valuation Adjustment using a mixture copula

Credit derivatives pricing models before Basel III ignored losses in market value stemming from higher probability of counterparty default. We propose a general credit derivatives pricing model to evaluate a Credit Default Swap (CDS) with counterparty risk, including the Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) in order to optimize the economic capital allocation. We work from the model proposed by Luciano (2003, Working Paper, International Center of Economic Research) and the general pricing representation established by Sorensen and Bollier (Financial Analysts Journal 1994;50(3):23–33) to provide a model close to the market practice, easy to implement and fitting with Basel III framework. We approach the dependence between counterparty risk and that of the reference entity with a technical tool: the copula, in particular, the mixture one that combines common “extreme” copulas. We study the CDS's vulnerability in extreme dependence cases. By varying Spearman's rho, the mixture copula covers a broad spectrum of dependence and ensures closed form prices. We end up with an application on real market data.     

Knowing your boundaries: Integration opportunities in international professional service firms

This study presents three different business models (continuous, repetitious, and unique) identified in international professional service firms that pursue a transnational strategy. These business models have varying opportunities for global integration. We extend the integration–responsiveness framework by offering a framework for analyzing how to balance global integration with local responsiveness when pursuing a transnational strategy. By identifying the content, structure, and governance transactions of the three business models, we can determine when to pursue headquarters-initiated global integration and when to choose strategies that ensure local responsiveness and subsidiary competitiveness in local markets.     

REAL OPTIONS AND THE CROSS‐SECTION OF EXPECTED STOCK RETURNS

This paper surveys the theoretical literature investigating the effect of firms’ investment flexibility on the cross‐section of expected stock returns. Real options analysis derives firms’ value‐maximizing investment policies as functions of exogenous fundamental drivers of profitability and calculates firms’ market values as functions of the same variables. These functions yield the relationship between expected stock returns and firm fundamentals. Several plausible explanations for the value premium – the high average stock returns earned by firms with high book‐to‐market ratios – emerge from this literature.     

EXTREME VALUE THEORY IN FINANCE: A SURVEY

Extreme value theory is concerned with the study of the asymptotic distribution of extreme events, that is to say events which are rare in frequency and huge in magnitude with respect to the majority of observations. Statistical methods derived from it have been employed increasingly in finance, especially for risk measurement. This paper surveys some of those main applications, namely for testing different distributional assumptions for the data, for Value‐at‐Risk and Expected Shortfall calculations, for asset allocation under safety‐first type constraints, and for the study of contagion and dependence across markets under conditions of stress.